Pre-Financial Score assesses the credit risk of young capital companies – ApS and A/S – that have not yet filed their first annual report. Since no financial statements are available, the model draws on other signals about the company's early life.

Pre-Financial Score

Pre-Financial Score assesses the credit risk of young capital companies – ApS and A/S – that have not yet filed their first annual report. Since no financial statements are available, the model draws on other signals about the company's early life.

Who does the model score?

The model covers all active ApS and A/S companies in Denmark that have not yet published an annual report. These are newly incorporated companies in their start-up phase, where no financial key figures are available for assessment.

As soon as a company files its first annual report, it automatically transitions to Risika's Financial or Holding model.

How the score works

The company is assigned a score on the day it is incorporated
The score is updated automatically every 6 months
The score uses the same 1–10 scale as all other Risika models – 1 is highest risk, 10 is lowest

What does the model look at?

Since no financial data is available, the score is built from the following factors – ranked by their weight in the model:

Factor / What it measures

Company age | The strongest single signal. For a company without a filed annual report, age reflects how overdue its first filing is. A prolonged delay is treated as a risk warning sign.
Industry | The broad sector the company operates in – some industries carry structurally higher failure rates in the start-up phase.
Industry risk level | A more granular measure of the historical risk within the company's specific line of business.
Connected bankruptcies | Whether the people and companies linked to the business have previously been involved in bankruptcies.
Employees | Number of employees as a proxy for the company's activity level and size.
Registered capital | The share capital committed by the owners.

What can you expect from the score level?

Young companies have a higher distress rate than companies with filed accounts – approximately 3.5–4% per year versus approximately 1.9%. Because Risika's 1–10 scale reflects absolute risk, Pre-Financial Scores will naturally sit toward the lower end of the scale. This is by design – the model shows the true risk rather than concealing it.

Most companies will receive a higher score once they file their first annual report and concrete financial information becomes available.

Score distribution at launch

Risk band / Scores / Share of companies

High risk 1–3 / 41%
Medium risk 4–6 / 51%
Low risk 7–10 / 8%

Monitoring and notifications

If you are monitoring companies scored by Pre-Financial Score, you will receive a notification when the score changes – for example, following the semi-annual update or when a company transitions to a different model.

Notifications from Pre-Financial Score work in the same way as all other monitoring notifications in Risika.

Model accuracy

The model has an AUC score of 0.77 – meaning it ranks a riskier company above a safer one 77% of the time. At launch, approximately 41,500 active companies have been scored with the model.

Scores are decision support and not a guarantee of future outcomes.